I've been spending a lot of time the last week driving around the riding of La Verendrye. It's going to be one of the "close" ridings on Tuesday evening.

My impressions from the last week is that PC challenger Bob Stefaniuk will win this riding quite handily. Stefaniuk signs outnumber signs for the NDP incumbant Ron Lemieux 2 to 1. If it's any indicator of how the candidates have fund-raised, it's a significant hurdle for Lemieux to clear.

On Saturday night I was out in La Broquerie for a friends wedding social. Most of the folks I spoke with expressed disappointment with the last four years of Gary Doer's reign. One local small-business person claimed that Lemieux has all but stopped showing his face in the riding.

Lemieux also has his to explain his record as Minister of Infrastructure and Transportation. The abysmal job Lemieux has done on this file is highlighted by the emergency closure of the Portage la Prarie overpass which had become too unsafe to be used. Furthermore, the NDP proudly announced $4 billion for infrastructure which should have been done four years ago. Why didn't Lemieux push for this extra spending when he became the Minister in charge of this file?

History is working against Lemieux as well. La Verendrye went to the PC's for 26 years from 1973-1999 when Lemieux was elected. Before that, it had gone to the Liberals from 1932-1973. Will voters decide that this experiment has gone on long enough?

Change is in the air, all over rural Manitoba, and Ron Lemieux is going to be just one of several NDP casualties on Tuesday.

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D.J. McGuire over at The Shotgun points out some significant flaws in the most recent Probe poll. The first thing that jumps out is that the Liberals have 16% support provincially. If the Liberals could pull down 16% on Tuesday, Jon Gerrard would be extremely pleased, but it just ain't gonna happen.

Probe is way out of line with this poll. Tuesday night will probably come down to the wire. With the long weekend on the horizon, people will have one last chance to get away and see what's happened to Manitoba's roads, lakes and parks under the reign of Gary Doer and the NDP. Hopefully they remember that on election day.

Labels: Bob Stefaniuk, Fun With Polls, Gary Doer, Jon Gerrard, Liberal Party, Manitoba, NDP

On Monday, the Black Rod posted an excellent piece, Free Press Fairy Tales and Fish Stories. He details a few of the errors that they've made in the recent past with headlines and facts. Which is why this piece in the Winnipeg Free Press today is hilarious.

The headline reads "Manitoba winning war with Alberta", with the byline "Many who headed west returning home". Talk about an attention-getting headline, I didn't even know we were at war with Alberta!

Here's a summary of the statistics backing up the headline:

Alberta's net gain from other provinces is still big, 11,813 in the last three months of 2006 alone. But the rate of growth appears to be slowing. In the last three months of 2005, Alberta had a net gain of 17,059.

Manitoba, on the other hand, lost 24,548 people to other provinces in 2006, and only gained 16,718, posting a net loss of 7,830.

No more mention of Alberta vs Manitoba stats, that's it. Can somebody PLEASE, PLEASE explain to me how a net LOSS of 7,830 OVER A YEAR is better than a net GAIN of over 17,000 in THREE MONTHS?

Labels: Fun With Polls, Manitoba, Winnipeg Free Press

After Gary Doer's pathetic attempt to skew the numbers by posing a loaded question on the Canadian Wheat Board plebiscite, the Feds now know not to make the same mistake (sub).

The Free Press has learned that Chuck Strahl's Agriculture Department has been preparing a ballot for the key vote that gives farmers three options -- instead of simply asking farmers whether they prefer selling barley on the open market. [...]

But Conrad Bellehumeur, Strahl's director of communications, did not deny there may be more than two questions, saying an "either-or" situation does not reflect the Tory vision for the world's largest barely and wheat marketer.

"I cannot confirm how many (voting) boxes there may be. There could be two, there could be more," Bellehumeur said.

"It (the ballot's wording) will reflect the government's vision to provide freedom of choice to producers."

If we're to use the Manitoba plebiscite as an indicator, this could spell trouble for proponents of the monopoly.

The Feds' question is more honest, and much more in line with the Torie's vision, than the live-or-die options given by the Doer government.

The Doer question forced farmers to choose between the status quo, and "I wish to remove the single desk marketing system from the CWB and sell all wheat through an open market system."

"That would not be the ballot we would use," he (Bellehumeur) said. "It is not an all-or-nothing option."

Strahl has said he will not be bound by the results of the barley plebiscite.

Mike Bast, chairman of the Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association, which has been among the biggest backers of the Tory plans for the CWB, said a three-option ballot is exactly what his group recommended to Strahl.

"That is the most accurate way to gauge farmers," Bast said.

"I feel that is where the Manitoba plebiscite missed the mark, because it did not give farmers out there that middle ground."

And that "middle ground" just so happens to be exactly what the government's plans are.

Labels: Conservative Party, CWB, Fun With Polls, Gary Doer, Manitoba, NDP

The numbers speak volumes.

Those who think Afghan President Hamid Karzai is a lost cause should think again. So says the evidence from a recent poll of what Afghans think, five years after the fall of the Taliban. "The current Afghan government retains broad support," concludes the survey by Charney Research, with 68 per cent of Afghans approving Karzai’s work.
(snip)
While the Taliban are active throughout south and west Afghanistan, their suicide bombings and attacks on schools and government buildings are not winning them any supporters. Nearly 90 per cent of Afghans have unfavourable views of the Taliban, with 76 per cent saying they have "very unfavourable" views. The only thing with a worse rating: Osama bin Laden.
(snip)
Another indication of the trauma of Taliban rule is that 85 per cent or more Afghans are thankful for the US invasion, grateful for the presence of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation troops in the country and prefer the Karzai government – despite its inability to provide law and security or stamp out corruption – to the Taliban.

All the while Jack Bin Layton, Gilles Duceppe and Stephane Dion talk about how the mission is a failure. They want to quit now that we're on the verge of victory. The Taliban are hated in Afghanistan, and they need to be exterminated.

Oh, and is this what it looks like to "force our lifestyle" on another culture? Because I think they like it.

Labels: Afghanistan, Bloc Quebecois, Dead Dictators, democracy, Fun With Polls, NDP, politics, Stephane Dion, Stephen Harper, Treason